Bubble vs satellite: how much equity you need to call

One set of stacks, four payout structures, and how much the pressure grows.

Updated 2026-10-23 · exact ICM math (Malmuth-Harville)

"Bubble" and "satellite" are often lumped together as ICM spots. They are not the same. On a normal bubble the prizes still grow with finishing place, so chips keep some value. In a satellite every seat pays the same, and once you are safe, extra chips are worth almost nothing. Here is the difference in numbers.

The same stacks, four structures

Four players are left with 4000, 3000, 2000 and 1000 chips (40%, 30%, 20%, 10% of the chips). There is no dead money, so each row is a pure all-in call for the smaller stack. The cells show the equity needed to call under ICM and, in brackets, the bubble factor.

Read across a row. With winner takes all you need exactly 50%, because there is no payout pressure. On a 50/30/20 bubble, 3000 calling 4000 needs 72.9%. In a satellite the same call needs 88.7%.

Even the chip leader

The last row is the one players underestimate. The 4000 stack calling the 1000 stack risks the least and still needs 52.9% on the bubble and 56.4% in the satellite. If he wins, the short stack's chips are added to a stack that is already safe, so the gain in prize equity is small. If he loses, he gives real equity away. The model charges for that asymmetry.

Why a satellite is so tight

This is what each stack is worth in ICM under each structure:

In the satellite the 4000 stack owns 40% of the chips but only 30.7% of the equity, and the 1000 stack owns 10% of the chips and 15.0% of the equity. Short stacks are the winners of the model: their chips are worth more than the chip count suggests.

What it means at the table

• Calling ranges shrink much more in a satellite than on a normal bubble, and shoving ranges against stacks that cannot afford to call grow. See the satellite push/fold ranges and the bubble guide.
• A flatter payout ladder is not automatically "closer to a satellite". The ladder 40/33/27 above is flat but still pays a different prize for each place. Only equal prizes behave like a satellite.
• Near the line, estimate the structure carefully. The difference between a 50/30/20 and a flat payout for the same call is several points of required equity.

Try your own structure in the ICM calculator or practise the decisions in the ICM trainer.

Known limitation of ICM. ICM models predict tournament results more accurately than a simple baseline model, but in one large study of tournament results they underestimate the results of players with larger stacks and overestimate those who are short-stacked (Kim 2025, arXiv 2506.00180).

Keep exploring

• Check the bubble factor of any all-in
• How much extra equity ICM asks for: the risk premium
• Where ICM misleads you, with numbers
• Browse the push/fold charts for 3 to 15 BB
• What the solution book knows and where it still differs

ICM by payout structure

• ICM at a nine-handed final table
• ICM with a flat payout structure
• ICM with a top-heavy payout structure
• ICM on the bubble: four players, three paid
• ICM three-handed with 50/30/20 payouts
• ICM heads-up with a 70/30 split
• ICM in winner-takes-all
• ICM in a satellite: seven players, three seats

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