progressICM in winner-takes-all
No payout ladder, so bubble factor is 1.
This page works through a winner-takes-all event. The numbers are exact results of the ICM model (the probability of finishing first is proportional to the stack, then the same rule for the next place), not estimates.
The payouts
Share of the prize pool by finishing place:
| 1st |
|---|
| 100% |
Equity of every stack
Example stacks, total 10000 chips:
| Seat | Chips | Share of chips | ICM equity | Equity minus chip share (points) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4000 | 40% | 40% | +0.0 |
| 2 | 3000 | 30% | 30% | +0.0 |
| 3 | 2000 | 20% | 20% | +0.0 |
| 4 | 1000 | 10% | 10% | +0.0 |
With a single prize the equity of each stack is exactly its share of the chips, so there is nothing to adjust: chip EV and ICM are the same.
Bubble factors
Bubble factor of the row player when all-in against the column player, for the first 4 seats:
| Hero \ Villain | Seat 1 | Seat 2 | Seat 3 | Seat 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seat 1 (4000) | — | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Seat 2 (3000) | 1.00 | — | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Seat 3 (2000) | 1.00 | 1.00 | — | 1.00 |
| Seat 4 (1000) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | — |
Every bubble factor is 1, which is why chip EV is the right measure in a winner-takes-all event.
What it means for your play
- Play chip EV: call whenever your equity beats the pot odds.
- Short stacks do not get extra survival value, since only first place pays.
- The only ICM-like effect is the real difference in skill at deep stacks, which the model ignores.
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progressGTO guides use our own solution book (v13, 8-max tournaments with ante, chip EV): an approximation of equilibrium with a modelled postflop, not an exact solution. Numbers are computed from the book and from the exact ICM model.
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