progressWhat is ICM in poker?
Why a stack of chips and the value of that stack are different things.
ICM stands for Independent Chip Model. It answers one question: given the chip stacks and the prize pool, what is each player's share of the prizes worth right now? In a cash game one chip is one unit of money. In a tournament it is not, and ICM is the standard way to measure the difference.
Chips are not money
Take four players with 4000, 3000, 2000, 1000 chips and payouts of 50% / 30% / 20% for the top three places. The chip leader owns 40% of the chips, but ICM values the stack at 33.6% of the prize pool. The short stack owns 10% of the chips and is worth 13.3%.
| Player | Chips | Share of chips | ICM value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Player 1 | 4000 | 40% | 33.6% |
| Player 2 | 3000 | 30% | 29.5% |
| Player 3 | 2000 | 20% | 23.6% |
| Player 4 | 1000 | 10% | 13.3% |
The leader has more of everything, but the next chip he wins is worth less than the chip he loses. That asymmetry is the whole point of ICM: losing chips hurts more than winning the same number of chips helps.
How the Malmuth-Harville model works
The model makes one simple assumption: the chance of finishing first is proportional to your stack. Then it removes that winner and repeats the same rule for second place among the others, and so on down the prizes. Worked example with 5000, 3000, 2000 chips and payouts 50 / 30 / 20:
| Player | 1st place | 2nd place | 3rd place | Prize equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stack 5000 | 50% | 33.9% | 16.1% | 38.4% |
| Stack 3000 | 30% | 37.5% | 32.5% | 32.8% |
| Stack 2000 | 20% | 28.6% | 51.4% | 28.9% |
For the 3000-chip player, the chance of finishing second is the sum, over each other player, of the chance that player wins times the share of the remaining chips: 37.5%. Multiplying each finishing chance by its prize and adding the results gives the equity in the last column.
What ICM changes in practice
- Calls need more equity than chip EV says. Risking your tournament life for a coin flip is worth less than the chips suggest. See bubble factor.
- Big stacks should be careful against medium stacks and can put pressure on stacks that cannot afford to call.
- Short stacks gain survival value. Near a payout jump, a player on very few chips may be worth far more than his chips alone suggest.
- Payout structure matters. A flat structure (many equal prizes, such as a satellite) makes survival even more valuable than a top-heavy one.
Limits of the model
ICM assumes everyone has equal skill and that win probability equals chip share. It ignores position, future blinds and the fact that skilled players turn chips into more wins. It is a good everyday guide, not an exact truth. For a full-table decision, our solution book also has ICM modes (Library and ICM training).
Try your own numbers in the free ICM calculator: enter stacks and payouts, and it shows every player's equity and the bubble factor for each pair.
Free 7-day ICM course by e-mail
One short lesson a day, each with a worked example in exact numbers: chips vs. money, the bubble factor, who feels the pressure, payout structures, satellites. No account needed.
Related guides
Questions
What does ICM stand for?
Independent Chip Model, a method that converts tournament chip stacks into expected prize money.
Is ICM exact?
No. It assumes win probability is proportional to chips and ignores skill and position, so it is an approximation used for decisions.
When does ICM matter most?
Near the bubble, at final tables and in satellites, where payout jumps make chips worth different amounts.
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progressGTO guides use our own solution book (v13, 8-max tournaments with ante, chip EV): an approximation of equilibrium with a modelled postflop, not an exact solution. Numbers are computed from the book and from the exact ICM model.
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