progressICM in satellites
When all prizes are equal, the chip leader's extra chips are worth very little.
A satellite awards equal prizes, typically seats into a bigger event, to the last players left. Whether you finish first or third in chips does not matter: you either get a seat or you do not.
An example
Seven players are left and the top three win a seat (equal prizes). The stacks are 9000, 3000, 2500, 2000, 1500, 1000, 800 and ICM gives each player this chance of getting a seat:
| Stack | Share of chips | Chance of a seat (ICM) |
|---|---|---|
| 9000 | 45.5% | 88.7% |
| 3000 | 15.2% | 54.4% |
| 2500 | 12.6% | 47.6% |
| 2000 | 10.1% | 39.7% |
| 1500 | 7.6% | 30.9% |
| 1000 | 5.1% | 21.3% |
| 800 | 4% | 17.3% |
The chip leader holds 45% of the chips but his chance of a seat is 89%, and the shortest stack with 4% of chips still has 17%. Extra chips beyond what is needed to survive are worth very little, while every chip a short stack loses is worth a lot.
What changes in your play
- Big stacks should avoid close confrontations. A bluff that risks the seat for a small chip gain is a poor trade.
- Medium stacks face the highest bubble factors, and fold hands that are comfortable calls in a normal tournament.
- Short stacks can wait for the others to bust each other, and push when blinds force the issue.
- Everyone wants to know the stack of the next player to act and the number of seats left. These two numbers decide how tight to be.
Satellites are the extreme case of ICM pressure; our ICM guide explains the model. Enter your own satellite in the ICM calculator by typing payouts of the same size for the seats.
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Related guides
Questions
Why is ICM so important in satellites?
All winners get the same prize, so chips beyond what you need to survive have almost no value, and losing chips costs a lot.
Should the chip leader play tight in a satellite?
Generally yes. He already has a very high chance of a seat, and big risks add little to it.
Can I enter satellite payouts into the calculator?
Yes. Use equal payout numbers for each seat and zero for the rest.
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progressGTO guides use our own solution book (v13, 8-max tournaments with ante, chip EV): an approximation of equilibrium with a modelled postflop, not an exact solution. Numbers are computed from the book and from the exact ICM model.
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