progressBubble factor calculator
Every player against every other: how much ICM pressure, and how much equity you need to call.
How to read the table
The bubble factor is what you lose in prize pool equity when you bust (or lose the chips at risk), divided by what you gain when you win the same chips. In a winner-takes-all event it is 1.00 for everyone: chips and money are the same thing. With a payout ladder it climbs above 1, most of all for medium stacks facing a stack that covers them, because losing ends their run while winning only adds a little.
The equity under each number is the break-even point for calling an all-in when the pot holds only the two stacks. Blinds and antes already in the pot lower it a little. Chip EV says 50% against any stack; ICM says more, and the table shows how much more.
The model is Malmuth-Harville ICM, calculated in your browser. For a single all-in with the prize pool in money, use the ICM calculator; for the theory, read bubble factor explained.
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Questions
What is a bubble factor?
The ratio of the prize pool equity you lose when you lose an all-in to the equity you gain when you win it. A bubble factor of 1.5 means each chip you can lose is worth 1.5 chips you can win.
How does bubble factor change the equity I need to call?
Required equity = BF / (BF + 1) when the pot holds only the two stacks. A bubble factor of 1.5 needs 60% instead of 50%, and 2.0 needs 66.7%.
Who has the highest bubble factor?
Usually the medium and short-medium stacks that are covered by a bigger stack, close to a big pay jump. The chip leader has the lowest pressure because a lost all-in does not end the tournament for them.
Does the bubble factor include blinds and antes?
No. It compares the two stacks only. Dead money in the pot makes calling a bit cheaper, so treat the numbers as the upper edge of what you need.
Free tools by progressGTO. The preflop charts come from our own solution book (8-max MTT, ante, chip EV): an approximation with a modelled postflop, not an exact solution.
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