progressICM heads-up with a 70/30 split
Two players, a big gap between first and second.
This page works through a heads-up match for first and second place. The numbers are exact results of the ICM model (the probability of finishing first is proportional to the stack, then the same rule for the next place), not estimates.
The payouts
Share of the prize pool by finishing place:
| 1st | 2nd |
|---|---|
| 70% | 30% |
Equity of every stack
Example stacks, total 9000 chips:
| Seat | Chips | Share of chips | ICM equity | Equity minus chip share (points) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6000 | 66.7% | 56.7% | -10.0 |
| 2 | 3000 | 33.3% | 43.3% | +10.0 |
The biggest stack is worth 56.7% of the prize pool while holding 66.7% of the chips. The smallest stack is worth 43.3% and holds 33.3%.
Bubble factors
Bubble factor of the row player when all-in against the column player, for the first 2 seats:
| Hero \ Villain | Seat 1 | Seat 2 |
|---|---|---|
| Seat 1 (6000) | — | 1.00 |
| Seat 2 (3000) | 1.00 | — |
Every bubble factor is 1. With two players left, equity is a straight line in chips between the two prizes, so a lost chip costs exactly what a won chip gains and chip EV decisions are correct.
What it means for your play
- Play chip EV. Call all-ins whenever your equity beats the pot odds; the payout ladder does not add a premium for survival.
- The stack lead is worth less than its chips. The player with 66.7% of the chips has 56.7% of the prize pool, because second place is guaranteed 30%.
- The gap between prizes decides how much it is worth to win. With a 90/10 split the same stacks would give the leader 63.3%; with a 50/50 split the lead would be worth nothing at all (50%).
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progressGTO guides use our own solution book (v13, 8-max tournaments with ante, chip EV): an approximation of equilibrium with a modelled postflop, not an exact solution. Numbers are computed from the book and from the exact ICM model.
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