progressSatellite push/fold ranges
When every winner gets the same seat, survival is worth more than chips.
In a satellite the last three of seven players win a seat, and all seats are equal. Everyone has 8 big blinds. First in, folded to you, our model gives these shove frequencies:
| Seat | Chip EV shove | Satellite ICM shove |
|---|---|---|
| Lojack | 26% | 29% |
| Hijack | 31% | 35% |
| Cutoff | 35% | 43% |
| Button | 46% | 52% |
| Small blind | 76% | 89% |
The small blind, with only the big blind left to act, shoves 89% of hands in the satellite against 76% in chip EV.
The callers
When the cutoff shoves:
| Caller | Chip EV call | Satellite call |
|---|---|---|
| Button | 18% | 8% |
| Small blind | 25% | 10% |
| Big blind | 36% | 16% |
The pattern is the one from the bubble: shoves widen and calls shrink, and the reason is the same: a seat is all that matters, and a lost call means no seat at all. See satellite ICM and bubble push/fold.
What to take away
- First in with a short stack, shove wide when the players behind are likely to fold.
- Do not call a shove without a strong hand: a loss means no seat, and a win adds chips that have little extra value.
- These numbers are for equal stacks; if one player is much bigger, he can shove nearly anything and the others must fold more.
How these numbers are made
They come from our own push/fold model of the whole hand. Every player, in turn, can fold, go all-in or call an all-in. The payouts use the Malmuth-Harville ICM, and the ranges are found by repeated best responses until they settle (they move by about a percentage point between runs; a second, independent solver agrees with the chip EV numbers to within about a point and a half). The blinds are 0.5 and 1 BB and the antes total 1 BB. Stacks are before posting. There is no postflop play, because an all-in and a call run to showdown. It is an approximation of the real game, and ICM itself ignores skill and position after the flop. It is a map for study, not an exact solution.
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Related guides
Questions
How wide should I shove in a satellite?
In our model, with seven players on 8 BB and three seats, the cutoff shoves 43% of hands and the small blind 89%.
How tight should I call?
About a third of the chip EV calling range: the callers behind a cutoff shove continue with 8% to 16% of hands.
Is this the same as the bubble of a normal tournament?
The direction is the same (shove wide, call tight). In a satellite a seat is all that matters, so a lost call means no seat at all.
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progressGTO guides use our own solution book (v13, 8-max tournaments with ante, chip EV): an approximation of equilibrium with a modelled postflop, not an exact solution. Numbers are computed from the book and from the exact ICM model.
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