progressBB defense vs HJ open at 38 BB
8-max MTT · ante 12.5 % · Hijack opens, small blind folds · chip EV
How the BB defends at 38 BB
Facing a Hijack open to 2 BB (small blind folds) with 38 big blinds, the big blind folds only 22% of hands, calls 67%, 3-bets to 8.5 BB with 11% and goes all-in with 0.1%. The big blind already has one blind in the pot and closes the action, so it gets a good price.
Always 3-bet: AA, AKs, AKo, AQs, AQo, AJs, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, 99, 88.
Folded: K2o, Q6o, Q5o, Q4o, Q3o, Q2o, J3o, J2o, T5o, T4o, T3o, T2o and 9 more.
Against other openers at 38 BB the big blind continues with: vs BTN 88%, vs CO 80%, vs LJ 75%, vs UTG+1 72%, vs UTG 71%. The later the opener, the wider its range, and the more the big blind defends.
Closest decisions (the book continues with them only part of the time): K4o 64%, Q7o 34%, J5o 74%, 95o 74%, J4o 24%. These are the hands worth drilling, because a small change in the opponents or the stack flips them.
What changes around 38 BB
The book continues with 78% of hands here, 78% at 36 BB and 78% at 40 BB. Going from 36 BB to 38 BB, no hand crosses the 50% line; only the frequencies shift.
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Numbers come from the progressGTO solution book (v14, chip EV, 8-max, ante 12.5 %): our own equilibrium computation with a modelled postflop. It is an approximation, not an exact solution, and it keeps improving. Hover or tap a hand to see its exact frequencies.
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