progressICM calculator
Stacks and payouts in, prize pool equity and bubble factor out. Free, no sign-up.
Presets: Top 3Winner takes allFinal table 9
Bubble factor of an all-in
How it works
The calculator uses the Malmuth-Harville model: the chance of finishing first is your share of the chips, and the same rule is applied again to the players left for second place, third place and so on. The result is your ICM equity: the average share of the prize pool you can expect. Big stacks are worth less than their chips suggest, and short stacks are worth more, which is why calling all-in with an ordinary hand can be a mistake near the money.
Everything is calculated in your browser. Nothing is sent anywhere. Want the bubble factor of every player against every other at once? Use the bubble factor table.
Free 7-day ICM course by e-mail
One short lesson a day, each with a worked example in exact numbers: chips vs. money, the bubble factor, who feels the pressure, payout structures, satellites. No account needed.
Questions
What is ICM in poker?
ICM (Independent Chip Model) turns tournament chips into prize pool equity. Because chips you win are worth less than chips you lose in a payout structure, tournament decisions are tighter than chip EV near the bubble and the final table.
What is the bubble factor?
Bubble factor is the cost of losing chips divided by the gain from winning the same chips, measured in prize pool equity. A bubble factor of 1.5 means you need to win much more often to break even on an all-in call.
Is this the exact answer?
It is the standard Malmuth-Harville ICM, which is an approximation of real tournament results, but it is the model most players and tools use for payout-aware decisions.
Can I use it for any payout structure?
Yes. Type the payouts in order, from first place down, for up to 10 players. They are scaled to 100 % of the prize pool.
Free tools by progressGTO. The preflop charts come from our own solution book (8-max MTT, ante, chip EV): an approximation with a modelled postflop, not an exact solution.
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