progressChip EV vs ICM, and what the ante changes
Antes make calls cheaper. They do not make ICM pressure go away.
Chip EV asks, "does this play win chips on average?" ICM asks, "does it win prize money on average?" Near the money the answers differ, because chips and prize money are not worth the same. The ante adds a twist: it makes the pot bigger, so calls get cheaper in both views. Does it also shrink the gap?
The experiment
Use the final table from our risk premium guide: stacks 3000, 2500, 2000, 1600, 1300, 1000, 800, 500 and 300, payouts 28/19/13/10/8/7/6/5/4. Blinds are 50/100. You have 1600 and call the 3000 shove. Only the ante changes, from none up to half a big blind per player.
| Ante per player | Chips in the middle | Equity needed (chips) | Equity needed (ICM) | Risk premium (points) | Bubble factor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No ante | 150 | 47.8% | 65.0% | 17.3 | 1.86 |
| 6.25 chips (6.25% of a big blind) | 206.25 | 47.0% | 64.5% | 17.5 | 1.81 |
| 12.5 chips (12.5% of a big blind) | 262.5 | 46.2% | 63.9% | 17.7 | 1.77 |
| 25 chips (25% of a big blind) | 375 | 44.8% | 62.9% | 18.1 | 1.69 |
| 50 chips (50% of a big blind) | 600 | 42.1% | 60.9% | 18.8 | 1.56 |
What the numbers say
- The bigger pot lowers both requirements. From no ante to the largest ante the chip requirement falls from 47.8% to 42.1%, and the ICM requirement from 65.0% to 60.9%.
- The gap does not close. The risk premium goes up, from 17.3 to 18.8 points. The dead money is good for everybody who calls, but the money you can still lose is the same.
- The bubble factor falls from 1.86 to 1.56 because the ratio is measured against folding, and folding now costs more chips.
So an ante widens calling ranges, but not because ICM pressure weakens. It widens them because the price of a call falls. That is the same reason antes widen opening ranges in the book (see why antes widen opening ranges).
How to enter an ante in the calculator
Add everything that is already in the middle (blinds plus all antes) to the "chips in the middle" field. In the table above that is 150 + 9 × ante. This link opens the 12.5 ante row so you can change the ante yourself.
When to use which
- Early and middle stages with no payout pressure: chip EV is enough, and our preflop book is chip EV.
- Bubble, final table and satellites: use ICM and look at the risk premium, not only the bubble factor.
- Short stacks: both views agree on the direction, ICM mostly moves the borderline hands.
The ICM trainer shows chip EV and ICM side by side for every spot.
Keep exploring
- Check the bubble factor of any all-in
- Where ICM misleads you, with numbers
- Browse the push/fold charts for 3 to 15 BB
- What the solution book knows and where it still differs
Free 7-day ICM course by e-mail
One short lesson a day, each with a worked example in exact numbers: chips vs. money, the bubble factor, who feels the pressure, payout structures, satellites. No account needed.
Related guides
Questions
Do antes reduce ICM pressure?
They lower the equity you need because the pot is bigger, but in our example the risk premium actually grows slightly, from about 17 to about 19 points as the ante goes from none to half a big blind.
Is chip EV or ICM right?
Chip EV is right when chips equal money, as in cash games or winner-takes-all. With payouts, ICM is the better model, although it is an approximation.
Does the book use ICM?
No. The progressGTO preflop book is chip EV with an ante. The ICM trainer and the calculators on this site add the payout structure.
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progressGTO guides use our own solution book (v17d, 8-max tournaments with a 12.5% ante from each player, chip EV): an approximation of equilibrium with a modelled postflop, not an exact solution. Numbers are computed from the book and from the exact ICM model.